I think another thing that is throwing these stats off is no one is getting marked recovered. There have been 10 active cases in Deland for a week. Someone has to die or get better eventually.
I'm pretty sure all those "active", "serious condition", "recovered", stats are BS at this point. I said in another thread somewhere, it's not like there's some centralized entity closing "helpdesk" tickets when someone leaves a hospital or gets over the illness at home... and people are lying in serious condition that we don't even know about because they haven't been tested. So those Deland people could be literally anywhere along the process, save for pretty much death, because deaths to seem to actually be tracked for the most part. The only thing that matters is deaths at this stage. That's what needs to flatten off and start hopefully diminishing towards zero to show we've turned the corner. But when we get back there again, the CDC will need to be watching this $@$^ closely at local levels to make sure we don't start this crap up again.
I am thinking the issue is with availability of tests. My gut tells me New York is having an explosion of cases because they have tests. I think we are going to find that many people get it asymptomatically. The more testing that we do we will find many more people have it and the fatality rate will plummet. There are 100 people in the country whose medical condition is severe.
To be marked cured you have to test negative on two tests. Who is going to waste two tests on recovered people when you dont have enough to test the ill.
If the death rate continues to plummet we could find this is no worse than a severe flu outbreak...or that it is 10 times worse...Your point is key. We wont know until we start seeing true resolution and possibly testing of the asymptomatic. This whole thing is a guessing game until the data is better. That comes with testing.
I agree Lacuna...but watching CNN...Weather Channel etc, flat out lie and manipulating data for ratings in the middle of Hurricane Florence makes me hesitate to believe anything I see. I am erring on the side of caution and believing what is reported. But I would not be totally shocked if this ended up being just a big flu like outbreak in the end. I simply dont know. But I know that my community faced an unspeakable tragedy 18 months ago and I watched news reporters stand in spots that I travel in daily and flat out lie. Conspiracy theorists are one thing...but lacking faith in reporting and what you see on the TV is another.
Are you a bot? Because you post things with absolutely no reasoning behind them. . Do you understand that the shutdown of countries al over the world is bad for what you describe as globalism? And Fauci is wrong because he liked Hilary Clinton? You post fringe conspiracy theories with facts that undercut them.
I would like to make two observations about the coronavirus and impending hysteria: (1)-I believe through personal experience and observations made by numerous other sources that the coronavirus has been with us in the United States for a long period of time prior to the time recognized in official statistics. This does not imply that the coronavirus did not originate in China. In early December 2019 my wife contracted a flu virus that was incredibly virulent. After three days of her inability to get out of bed, I forced her and took her to her doctor. Fortunately, she was placed on a heavy dose of antibiotics. Notwithstanding this undertaking together with other attempts to minimize effects (Tamiflu), she did not recover until after Christmas. This required additional doctor visits and testing. Her first symptoms were an extremely sore throat that was incredibly severe. Her recovery required additional doctor visits and testing. Once again, her first symptoms were an extremely sore throat that was incredibly severe together with chills and fever with a runny nose. During this time, I contracted a sore throat that lasted approximately three days. My experience did not cause any major problems. That stated, I rarely get sick and am physical fitness nut. At the risk of receiving ridicule, it is both my and my wife’s belief now that we both had the coronavirus. Notwithstanding this belief, we are fully complying with social distancing and all other measures described in detail by our President and the large group of professionals (public and private) that our President has assembled. To that end, I would state that our government and all other organizations and schools (PGA, LPGA, NBA, UF, together with a complete shutdown of all activity) have been forced by the coverage of this situation to comply with these rigorous requirements. All parties in the situation of leadership are forced to take the most conservative approach to what has been described by the media. What could they do? Come out in this environment and take the position that they were going to overlook all situations and gamble? Of course not. Beyond that, our President has done an incredible job in the management of this situation on behalf of the United States and the world, whether or not he is given appropriate credit. All of this stated, I believe retrospectively this will be viewed historically as a hysterical overreaction of dramatic proportions. This is not the fault of our President or government but by the idiotic hysteria over all things that have become entrained in our society. I am hopeful that an ultimate positive outcome to this will occur when our society recognizes the severe consequences of unbridled hysteria and it’s outlandish consequences. (2)- Additionally, I would like to point out to those unaware that extremely promising international and US studies are finding that the combination of a 1940s malaria drug (hydroxycloroquine) together with Azithromycin (Z-Pack) are having nearly 100% success in treating the coronavirus with recovery between three and six days. I can only hope that this likely media/socially imposed hysteria will implode as real time experience shows that the coronavirus is only as lethal or less lethal than the flu. At the end of the day, I can only hope that this panic induced overreaction will cause the media/press to understand the extreme pitfalls created by this underlying movement. Hysterical panic of all things induced by a 24/7 news cycle should never be allowed again.
Very clear you are a GoP operative. This is a national problem. Not a state and local problem. Nobody is going to buy the talking points coming from the Trump Administration and GOP sycophants that this is the fault of state and local Dems. Because a traveler coming through an airport who is sick is not a state and local problem. The GOP is finished in November. It’s lies, greed and buck passing have finished the GOP. Big miscalculation because the public doesn’t want to hear his. Have you been in stores and observed people walking around in masks? And we all remember your posting about that all of this was being exaggerated. That has changed. So, now that you have been proven wrong, you just shift to spreading the new talking points. We see the new ones. Trump tried this out the other day when he put this on the governors. Harry Truman he is not. You were wrong, are long, and those of us who have followed are going to hold you to your positions and the lying GOP that spread this accountable. All you are proving is that the GOP is unfit to run the country. Because, again, Trump has failed in another emergency. It is really sick they the GOP has chosen to blame the states. When the states can mobilize the military, like the Defense Logistics Agency, or build MASH units, let us know. Just know that you are not going to get away with the talking points here. And the numbers are high in California, New York and Chicago because those are very populated and congested areas and there is testing in New York. And they are areas where there is a great deal of travel. And the numbers are high in Washington because that was ground zero and the disease ran through a nursing home. Tell you me GOP fellows that if they want votes, to handle this.
Thanks for this. We need mobile hospitals. The military can do it. But, follow the thread. The talking points are seeping in. Trump wants to pass blame to the states and he will not mobilize because then it looks like it his his responsibility. Which it is. The political calculus is driving this and the talking points are seeping into the thread. And Trump lies about the malaria medicine. You are on the front lines. G-d bless you and thanks for informing reality. We have lots of opinions here from folks who haven’t been in a hospital and are living normal life.
I agree with this that stat is BS now and only deaths will tell the story mostly on number of.cases in reality since testing of less serious symptom people has really cranked up in some states. Normally the deaths for a day would top a few days afterwards but I think we may get the opposite here now. The increased testing has took the fatal level from like 2.6 % here to under 1.3% now it looks like. I doubt we are far from topping and like you say it needs to keep that steady downtrend.
Not only will I not ridicule your theory you may have had COVID-19, i think it is plausible based on symptoms. I will share my experience and why I agree with you that the virus has been in this country for a longer period of time. In mid-January, I became tired, then lethargic. The second day (Monday), I developed a fever and chills (chills come when fever spikes). I had a mild sore throat and developed a dry cough. No congestion; no sinus problems. I took advil, which helped with the fever. But made me perspire like I took a shower. I went to the doctor Tuesday and tested negative for the flu. I did not have a cold; with a cold, I get sinus congestion. The doctor determined that there was a high probability it was a bacterial infection; there was no hint of Corona then. He prescribed a Z pack, which would address any bacterial infection or a secondary bacterial infection. I never get the flu because I was always getting sick with it when younger, so I have immunities to almost every flu. I had them all. The fever lasted 4 days. I was in bed Monday through Thursday. Friday, I felt OK and went to work. But, that night and Saturday the fever came back. The symptoms were the symptoms of COVID-19. I am with you; I hope I had it and think i did. But, I disagree with the rest of your assessment. If you look at an epidemiological chart, you will see that these always start with periods of few cases. If this was here earlier, we would still be low on the line. The line begins to grow exponentially as community spread occurs. In another thread, a few others have had similar experience. I agree with you on the fear and panic. The overwhelming weight of people will have mild symptoms, or feel sick, but not get a severe or deadly case. With good testing, that would be evident now. but, that requires tests of everyone who is ill and antibody tests for people who have been ill. The "panic" should not be a "panic." We desperately need to avoid the hospitals being overrun by those who get seriously ill. This is a new disease, so nobody has immunity and everyone is at risk. People are afraid because nobody knows if they will be severely ill. And, the vulnerable are even more afraid. Who draws the short straw? ' And, results on the malaria drug are anecdotal and there are dosage issues. Hopefully, it pans out. It will not prevent infection, but may reduce symptoms or shorten duration. We will see. The failure to be prepared with testing and anti-body testing is a national disgrace. Because lack of information breeds fear, too.
"The battle to contain the virus is lost" In the hardest hit areas, Hospitals can't get enough tests, so officials are restricting the use to test kits to healthcare workers and people sick enough to require hospitalization. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/03/21/coronavirus-testing-strategyshift/
