Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Obscure reference alert. Maybe O'Hare went all Spinal Tap and mixed up separation ' with separation ". (Feet vs inches).

STONEHENGE!!

 

All these great authoritarian moves that,with the naked eye, seem to appease the public and yes I realize that theoretically the intent is to eliminate the peaks of the infections. My issue is it really necessary? Is there anything that say's that sitting in Taco Bell at 11pm is more of a factor than someone going to the grocery store? Are we just pulling straws and seeing what works? Because if after all the closing of everything and the trending doesn't adjust then what?

Finally, the doomsday thing was bad enough before the reality of what the virus does and how it kills the elderly but the economic thing is going to create way more issues than anybody was prepared for. So I throw this out for discussion....WHO is going to be the one that say's "hey, things are looking better so let's play baseball?" or "it's time to open all the restaurants etc. because it just feels like everything is okay now!" and add to that, How long does anyone really think it will take to reach the comfort zone again? Everyone is so freaked out and looking at life as a "its gotta be done" but how long can people really tolerate the limited lifestyle? How long will it take before people will stand next to someone and instead of seeing the grim reaper can go back to saying to a person with a runny nose, "hey, I had a bad cold for a week and it just now went away"? When is normalcy going to be normalcy and who will make that decision?

 

Yeah, I posted a story a day or two about a cruise ship where one of the passengers had tested positive, the results came in before the ship docked. Still, 3,000+ passengers disembarked with no screening. Many went straight to the Miami airport and flew home.

 

Quite possibly yes. That scene the other day was insane. At least rushing them through helps lessen cross infection, so that’s probably the better option between the two.

How many people are we talking about here? Aren’t airports almost dead right now except for the people scrambling back from Europe?.. For those Europe flights I think they should be taking measures like landing people on the tarmac and screening the passengers outside the terminal. Every single one of them should be tested. Why is that so hard? Seems mind boggling.

 

Anyone not in the high risk group that is freaking out for their own personal health needs to be better informed. I believe returning to normalcy is going to have to come from the CDC and straight from the political top. It will really suck for me if we have to distance ourselves for many months but it would suck much more for me to lose any of my grandparents, parents, aunts, and uncles prematurely.

 

I don't know if this is so much an issue with "authoritarian moves" as it is with shitty planning and execution. There are a dozen ways this could have been done correctly, it just wasn't.

 

I know it looks like everything but I think you’d be surprised how much falls outside those categories. There’s a reason the roads are empty.

 

Its still real early but considering New York has more restrictions than FL it does appear the growth of this stuff may be getting affected a little by FL's weather. Also the tropical weather countries don't seem to be having this stuff taking a big hold like the temperate countries. One had an initial big hit but the stuff doesn't seem to be spreading as much as in the cooler places even though China has a lot of connections to some of these countries now. I guess the next few weeks will tell us more.

 

Facebook to give $1,000 bonuses to each of its employees to deal with coronavirus fallout

 

Playing this out, when will serum tests become a thing? A serum test (blood) can tell you if you have recovered from COVID-19. This will essentially be a get out of jail card for social distancing, emotionally speaking. And possibly going back to the office.

 

“Stealth” coronavirus cases are fueling the pandemic, with a staggering 86% of people infected walking around undetected, a new study says.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/17/86-of...rus-are-walking-around-undetected-study-says/

 

If that is close to being true then the death rate on this stuff will eventually be like .35% or so. My own view is there are a lot more than 86% walking around with it not being affected much and the real death rate will eventually be a little higher than the flu if it remains around like the flu.

 

It's going to take data to make that decision, so nothing is changing until testing is ubiquitous. Then science will analyze and recommend when it's safe to get back to normal. That recommendation, or lack thereof, will have to push up against political and social forces. We'll see what prevails....

As Churchill said, "You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."

 

You're basing that off the false assumption that the 86% will remain asymptomatic and survive.

 

In my opinion, only the more severe cases are being reported. If someone is having little to no symptoms, they are unlikely to go to the doctor to get tested. So no one really knows how many people have been affected. I believe the number is much higher than 86%, which puts the mortality rate much lower than is being reported.

 

I am basically basing it off an assumption that we have had at least 100K with this already and most will never get a test because they feel alright for the most part. I don't see some big jump in deaths coming just because more people will be doing self testing and being tested without a decent fever etc.

The flu would have like a 6% death rate I think I read somewhere if it was only based on the equivalent people that are getting lab tests with this now. They have to do modeling and assumptions to get those death numbers % for the flu that are really low.

 

Could it lower mortality rates? Yes. Will these 86% stealth cases remain out of hospitals? Seems incredibly unlikely.

I love the optimism, though.

 

Here is the problem: your "beliefs" aren't driven by anything more than what you want to be true. In South Korea, they have identified huge amounts of younger carriers. The death rate there? 0.9% so far.

 

Oh I know. I was halfway kidding, but it leaves a lot of leeway. (Which I think is a good thing to some extent).

 

We will see I guess. I think anecdotally these actors rushing to have private tests done and showing a lot of positives while feeling alright is telling a lot of the story here.