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Coronavirus in the United States - news and thoughts

Discussion in 'Too Hot for Swamp Gas' started by GatorNorth, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Legend

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    Yep and the lefty ones (which there are many) are trying to weaponize this against Trump. The CDC is even loaded with them and that is why they are putting out ridiculous scenarios that are there to do more than just err big time on the side of caution.
     
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  2. RIP

    RIP I like touchdowns Premium Member

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    Dude you really need to take off the tinfoil hat.
     
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  3. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Amazing, isn’t it.
    Fever prob thinks the military is a bunch of liberals too given they are taking precautions.
     
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  4. RIP

    RIP I like touchdowns Premium Member

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    Yeah I'm done responding to him. I feel like I get dumber every time I read his replies.
     
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  5. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    I think drive through testing, even if just for one week lets say, helps give us an idea of the spread. It isn't just to find and isolate the positive numbers, it is to give us metrics that we can extrapolate out to see where we stand as we attack this thing.
     
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  6. obgator

    obgator GC Hall of Fame

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    Trump is now having a press conference saying the virus is not under control and this could last till July or August. What a lefty!
     
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  7. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Holy crap, once trump is labeled a rino, who do the alt right people on this board turn to?
     
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  8. RealGatorFan

    RealGatorFan Premium Member

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    • Informative Informative x 5
  9. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Trump announced the new guidelines during a press briefing Monday afternoon. Officials also recommend that Americans avoid gatherings of more than 10 people; avoid discretionary travel; avoid eating in bars, restaurants and food courts; and engage in schooling from home when possible.
     
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  10. RealGatorFan

    RealGatorFan Premium Member

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    ^^^Butt keep in mind if it works, we are dead any way because it'll be 12 to 18 months before we'll get it.
     
  11. duchen

    duchen VIP Member

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    We have the right wing thinking. Let 'em get sick and die instead.
     
  12. GatorNorth

    GatorNorth Premium Member Premium Member

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    Summary of Goldman Sachs investor call:


    Below is a summary of the Goldman Sachs Investor call this morning where 1,500 companies dialed in....


    The key economic takeaways were:

    50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

    70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be affected.

    Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

    The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

    Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

    Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

    There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

    China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

    Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

    S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

    There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

    In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

    Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

    There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
     
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  13. tilly

    tilly Superhero Mod. Fast witted. Bulletproof posts. Moderator VIP Member

    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. RealGatorFan

    RealGatorFan Premium Member

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    They should have called it LogansRun-19.
     
  15. NavyGator93

    NavyGator93 GC Hall of Fame

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    Trump says coronavirus crisis could go through July or August

    Trump has faced criticism for attempting to downplay the threat of the virus and minimize issues the administration has had rolling out testing. His tone shifted notably on Monday, offering a sober take on the potentially long-lasting effects of the virus.

    OK, I know he is way late to the party, but I am going to give him (and probably Dr. Fauci) some credit. Shifting his tone and trying to get people to act rationally (somewhere between "I need all the TP" and "this is a liberal hoax") is an important step. This is not a left or right disease, it's fricking science.
     
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  16. RIP

    RIP I like touchdowns Premium Member

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    Agreed. Earlier would have been better but time travel doesn't exist. Glad things are changing. I wonder how the "it's not so bad" crew feel now?
     
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  17. obgator

    obgator GC Hall of Fame

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    And then Trump rates his response a 10. What.A.Joke
     
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  18. AndyGator

    AndyGator VIP Member

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    You are completely lost :rolleyes:
     
  19. swampbabe

    swampbabe GC Hall of Fame

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    My Publix was definitely out of meat and produce in addition to ever elusive TP
    Edit to add: they are restocking as quickly as they can so both observations can be correct.
     
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  20. gator_fever

    gator_fever GC Legend

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