Yep, nobody should really trust what the govt is telling us about this thing. Be prepared for the coming lock down.
What about the opposite? The leagues that shut down and Disney aren't getting their advice from their personal doctors. They are getting their advice from health officials. Are the Democrats going to give props to Pence and the Trump administration? I have read on this board, "even if Biden is becoming senile he will surround himself with competent people". It sounds like Trump has, at least in this case, surrounded himself competent people. People mocked Pence for praying for guidance and wisdom. He was trying to "pray away the problem". "We are so screwed." If it is contained do you think those bigots will admit Pence and his team did a good job?
Of course Italy’s older population matters, but it’s still 1000 people dead and it’s still growing there. The virus isn’t political, but to now, how we have handled it largely has been. Trump has in turn blamed Obama, called it a democratic hoax, allegedly didn't want more tests because he didn’t want more cases reported, allegedly wanted to minimize it over all to help his re-election chances, has lied about texting ability to make his admin look better, among other things. All while the country was busy making sacrifices. He shouldn’t be rewarded for that.
That's one possibility. Your point highlights the difficulty in boiling down the disease's characteristics into simple numbers when population susceptibility and quality of health care varies wildly. I'm hanging my hat on South Korea's outlier mortality rate being the product of proactive action (mass testing, early detection and encouraged social distancing). A reactive strategy when asymptotic transmission exists is bound to more inefficient than KOR's approach.
But they are not doing a good job. The leagues and businesses are getting advice from their own experts Not the govt health officials. Their leadership and decision making has been far more decisive than the TA.
What’s more dangerous assuming everything else about the virus is the same: (assuming mortality rates being the same for all ages) 1. one with a 10% mortality rate? Or 2. one with a .5% mortality rate? people keep saying the low mortality rate is a good thing, is it?
With everything else being the same (especially the R naught) I'd take the 0.5% all day and twice on Sundays.
The issue with this one is not just the mortality rate among older people, it's that people can spread it easily even while "symptom free". It seems even the experts aren't really 100% on how exactly this is most transmitted (i.e. through the air, through touching surfaces, etc). I've seen estimates all over the map for how long the virus lives outside the body, everything from a few hours to 9 days. I'm obviously no expert, but I had no idea that type of spread was even possible. I thought these things mostly only spread when a person coughed, then another person close enough walks through that airspace seconds later and picks up some of the microscopic particles still floating in the air, then after incubation period that person shows cough symptoms, starts spreading it, etc, and it exponentially goes from there. From what I've read, the SARS and MERS type outbreaks were easier to contain because people are contagious only WITH symptoms, and it spread similar to what I described above. So once the health organizations catch on they start trying to isolate those individuals with symptoms to stop the spread. This one is somewhat unique in that you can be a carrier and spread it sans symptoms. That is crazy for something that has 10% mortality for some. That is why the extreme social distancing measures are warranted. Though the concern is if we don't go "all the way", and there is always a little bit of the virus circulating out there, when will it END?
Oh no. Bad news. Trump will have a press conference today at 3:00. Not good - when he speaks mkts crash and people become more worried.
I think it much more likely that the competent people were already there - as career service epidemiologists - you know the deep state folks and despite Pence and Trump their efforts will eventually have impact.
Kirkland, WA, is a good test case for what could happen throughout the country. Kirkland is upper-middle class, with the average home value of around $460,000, with the average home in Seattle Metro worth about $280,000. Kirkland is home to the Costco corporate office, and the town is right next to Redmond, where Microsoft calls home. The average Kirkland resident is likely healthier than the average American, and has top notch access to healthcare. With that said, here's a good look into the Kirkland hospital that has been ground zero for corona in the US. At first, they didn't have enough negative air rooms that didn't let air escape. Had to retro-fit a few rooms to handle the incoming cases, and they are already at capacity. I read elsewhere, and can't seem to find it, that in the Kirkland area, 4 out of 5 cases have been mild, but about 20% of cases require medical attention. And it's not just the elderly who come in needing help, though the represent the majority. The numbers in Kirkland are about 1 in 6 reported cases have gone to the hospital. To put this in perspective, there are approximately 4 million people who live in the Seattle Metro area. Even if just 20% of the people get corona, that's 800,000 cases. 15% of those needed medical care equals 120,000. There aren't that many hospital beds in the state of Washington. And this is just for corona cases! It's not like people are going to stop having heart attacks or accidents that end up in broken bones during the outbreak. The mortality rate seems to be between .8% in S. Korea, and 3% in Italy. One of the reasons for the difference is availability of care. S. Korea took precautions to stop the spread and there are enough hospital beds for those that need. In Italy, where healthcare isn't top notch, the shortage of beds was only made worse by people in the country not taking corona seriously and treating it like any other, old flu. Our healthcare system is simply not equipped for a full-on spread of corona like what has happened in Italy. We just don't have all the necessary facilities for that kind of outbreak. The facilities we do have are better than Italy for sure, but we couldn't handle tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of people needing care all in a short time frame. Our best course of action is to flatten the curve. We are not going to completely stop the spread of corona at this point, but if we can slow it down, we will be able to handle things and keep the death toll on the lower end of the spectrum. This means cancelling of events like what has happened, keeping a distance from others, and practicing good hygiene.
The Miami mayor now has it. The official report that less than 2000 people in the US have it has to be way low. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/13/coronavirus-latest-news/
We aren't testing people with mild symptoms in many instances. So absolutely it is. I live in Louisiana. Two different states declared their first case as having been related to travel to Louisiana for Mardi Gras. And yet, in the entire state of 4.6 million people, we have conducted a grand total of 94 tests.
I think his point is that a higher mortality rate will cause humans to react more aggressively to contain the virus, which lowers the infection rate to such a degree that the 0.5% disease might be more deadly overall. It is an interesting empirical question.
