Let's say that's true. First thing I'd say is that would be a wonderful outcome. Second, however, is that comparisons can only take us so far. What we are dealing with is not these other infectious diseases, but a new pandemic causing public health crisis around the world. We must deal with this specific threat and whatever implications arise from it.
I will have to look at the numbers but my guess is this stuff will not pass the 12,500 US deaths they attributed to that 2009 outbreak for a year period. The given death rate for older people will be much higher due to this stuff not being diagnosed in a bunch of people however. It sounds like some young people show hardly any symptoms at all with this stuff unlike the flu.
Corona will likely be much, much worse than H1N1. H1N1 was a new strain of an old virus, which meant most people 60 and over had immunity, because they were around the last time the virus hit. There was also a vaccine ready when the virus hit the US. Though it was only 25% effective and much lower than hoped, 25% effective is much better than 0%, which is where we are with Corona. The death toll in Italy has already surpassed 1000, and is climbing daily, and that's a country of 60 million. We have over 5 times the population here in the US.
I think it will be much less than SARS % wise but the total deaths will be lower than H1N1 because that affected a ton of people that they knew about because it was so common. No way this stuff nails like 50 million people in the US in a year. We can't say until the time gets here but I bet this stuff gets slowed down by May due to the extra UV and higher humidity which is why the flu is more dormant in the summertime many experts think. The official cases will keep going up however as testing becomes more routine.
I don't usually ask for clarification of ones intent but what does this mean? The numerical fact is 1000 dead in Italy. Then you attempt to highlight what with the 60 million versus 350 million? Are you suggesting that because we have more than 60 million that our death toll will be 5 times more? Or are you suggesting that 60 million with 1000 deaths is less than 350 million and 1000 deaths? In other words...what is the point? 1 million,10 million, one trillion are all the same unless you are suggesting that Italy will lose 60 million residents which you expect that we could lose 350 million? Or maybe you are just pointing out statistical facts in that "hey, we have 5 times the population of Italy. That's interesting." or "the death toll in Italy is 1000 and I find this interesting, but they have 60 million residents". Is that what you meant?
Simple extrapolation math. Italy has 1000 Corona deaths in a population of 60 million. US has 330 million, meaning if our response mirrors that of Italy, in a few weeks, we should expect about 5,250 deaths, plus or minus. Of course, this is overly simplistic, but Italy is likely the best comparison for the US. China instituted martial law in Wuhan and basically put 50 million residents on house arrest. I doubt we'll do something that extreme. Italy is now much more restrictive, but they are still allowing travel out of the country, as well as travel within the country on an as-needed basis. H1N1 killed 12,000 in the US. Time will tell if Corona will surpass the total. Considering that 0% of the population has immunity versus H1N1, which had some prior herd immunity and a vaccine, my guess is, unfortunately, the death toll will be higher this time around.
Wow. A lot of people who are out in the field studying this on here! I mean, folks saying the death total will be less than 12,000ish and that this will be slowing by mid-April... when the experts either utterly disagree or say we cannot know. People who have spent their lives studying this must be morons compared to the geniuses on here. By the way, the fact that young people hardly show any symptoms is a HUGE issue causing loss of containment and transmittal. People over 80 appear to have above an 8% mortality rate, but hey, the kids only sniffled.
People have a very hard time accepting reality over what they wish to be true. Nobody wants this to happen so a portion of the population will cling to beliefs that make them feel safe.
An expert in England believes warmer weather won't likely slow down Corona as much as the seasonal flu. The fact that Corona has been active in places where it's currently warm now, like Australia, tend to back up the Professor's opinion. Truth is, we don't know. We can hope the heat and humidity helps slow the spread of the disease. It might. It might not. But it's not something we should count on happening until we know what happens. Plan for the worst, and hope for the best.
I hate when facts get in the way of a really bad argument: Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Good question Bling. Would we rather do a financial reset if it saves even 90,000 lives? Would everyone here be ok if we shut down the world for 30 days and quarantine everybody on the planet while Hazmat teams go over every nook and cranny disinfecting every single exposed surface? Hindsight is 20/20 and this virus might be a slow starter. Do we really trust China's numbers? If we do, then we do what China did because their numbers have been stable since Feb 12th. Very few new cases and deaths. But how do we know that 500,000 have already died and the WHO or China is covering it up?
Yeah the 80% mortality rate was obviously false. I didn't even read that part and was mostly replying to people thinking this will result in minimal deaths.
