There is no definitive information stating this since this infection is just ramping up outside of China. We will see where it lands in the end. To downplay it (as you have many times already) I think is foolish. Take it seriously. Be prepared. Or not, your call.
The flu kills an estimated .01%. The WHO has this at 3.4%. I don’t believe the WHO has all the numbers yet to trust that as the ultimate number, but South Korea who are basically testing everybody, has it at .6%. That may be the best case scenario. Again, the issue is that for the flu there is a vaccine. Vulnerable populations can be protected. For this there is no vaccine, and in those high age groups the mortality rate is exponentially higher. That is why “extreme” measures to stop its spread are justified.
South Korea also has an obesity rate of about 4% vs anywhere from 25% to 40% of adults depending on the state.
I understand your point but, and I say this as a basis for my point, every year we have a flu vaccine but most people do not get vaccinated and the flu affects high age groups the same exact way. I don't see a call for self isolation for that. I don't see 8 billion dollars allocated for flu vaccines even though most of the strains are not prevented by current vaccines (yes they claim they alleviate the worst effects) and the death rate is much higher. The last time you had the flu what did you do? Did you stop at Walmart Pharmacy for cold and flu medicine? Did it stop you from going to work when the first effects started? Did you once think that you had just spread the flu to other people and that some would have weakened immune systems or 85 years old? I am going to guess it was business as usual. Correct me if I am wrong. We are dealing with the same exact circumstances.
The CDC states that around 43% if the population gets the flu vaccine annually. It's effective about 50% of the time. So that leaves 1/4 of the population with immunity to the flu. 0% of the population is immune to the coronavirus. If you actually had the flu you would have likely felt so awful that you went to the doctor. My wife had it this year (36 years old) and it hit her like a freight train. We took her to urgent care and she was tested for flu and was positive (A type flu). She was incapacitated for about a week, then got diagnosed with pneumonia a few days later. She is a great weight and has zero underlying medical issues. The entire time she was sick I quarantined her to the master bedroom and I was the only one in or out of her room. I wore gloves and disinfected all surfaces that she would touch. I also disinfected her dirty dishes. As a result neither I nor my 72 year old mother in law who lives with us got sick. The way you describe people treating the flu is exactly the reason it spreads so far and kills so many. You aren't making a good point as to why we should treat the coronavirus the same way.
Per the CDC it only lives outside the body 4 hours... influenza is like 24. Side note my boss was just informed while at a meeting 2 weeks ago he was in close contact with a person who has tested positive for Covid19... he(my boss) is well and his 14 day exposure window ends Friday.
Will you please provide us with a link to your post? The only figures I've seen are estimates anywhere from a few hours to 2 days.
Fair point however we don’t truly know the length of tine with certainty. Done early studies have found much longer depending on the surface but it also depend on other factors though as the cdc has noted coronaviruses generally don’t survive long and that they don’t believe the spread will occur much via surface CJ tact. apologies for spelling At eye doctor and can’t see well right now
I've been searching and can't find a single definitive time frame. I don't think anyone knows yet with absolute certainty so at this point it seems better to be safe than sorry.
Out of the 43% of the population that gets the flu vaccine, it includes just about every worker who has regular contact with the most vulnerable populations. This would include healthcare professionals, as well as those who work with the elderly, such as nursing home workers. So the population that is the highest percentage to infect the most vulnerable have a higher immunity to the flu, since they make up a large percentage of the people who receive the flu shot. No such protection from Corona exists as of yet. So not only is there a higher mortality rate, the immunity to Corona is 0%. It's a bad combination for anyone in the high risk population. Maybe that doesn't affect you or anyone you love. As for me, my Mother turns 77 in about a month and has Crohn's disease, which is an immune issue. Some days are bad, but in the last 12 months, most days have been good, since the doctors have finally found the right drug/treatment combination. Without anything unforeseen happening, my mother has years left to live. Should she be infected with Corona, this could quickly change to days.
Dr. Fauci told the House today that "it's going to get worse," and that Americans shouldn't assume that the virus will "die off in warmer weather." (Trump says it will "go away.") I wonder how soon now Fauci is going to be fired. Fauci Warns House on Coronavirus: ‘It Is Going to Get Worse’
I’m traveling today on my way to Nashville to root the Gators on this weekend. I’m sitting in a very empty Tulsa airport. It’s obvious a lot of people are not traveling.
My wife and I are in a risk group, so hopefully I'll be around next year to get the vaccine. I think that just because most of our politicians are self-serving idiots, we shouldn't emulate them and make discussions about this terrible situation political. If and when we ever get a handle on this, there will be plenty of time to analyze what was done, and what should have been done.
As far as numbers of patients with COvid19 It will get worse before it gets better for many reasons, foremost: We haven't even really begun testing large numbers of patients. It has somewhat recently made its way stateside. Leaders need to speak to the facts and not sensationalize this. Facts are that over 60 has the worst mortality, under 60 with few major medical issues have very low mortality and most (like 80%) barely know they are sick.
