Coronavirus - International stories and thoughts

A week? Holy crap, that is terrifying.

Id go climb into @homer’s bunker with him, if it weren’t for the high probability of me being shot in the process. I guess I’m stuck out here with you guys.

 

yes, production issues and shipping issues as the Chinese New Year is extended and people cope with the virus.

 

Better stay out of China navy unless your wearing full scuba!

 

I would be more concerned with Homer's self described methane issue. Getting shot may be the least of your worries.

 

Some English epidemiologists that have modeled scenarios like this were saying the Genie is out of the bottle and it will be a world wide Pandemic.

I have heard some are projecting that in China alone you could have up to 160,000 new cases a week reported (very soon).

Remember for every reported case many experts predict there are two cases not reported. CDC also projects NO antidote for at least one year.

 

My guess is if you wanted a real approximation of deaths from this stuff in China you would need to add the increased pneumonia deaths listed over the numbers they had prior to this to their official death numbers for it. Medical people over there are saying that is one way they are keeping the death numbers from it artificially low.

 

Really good piece on China's mishandling of the coronavirus epidemic and more generally about the costs China's increasingly authoritarian system.

Opinion | Coronavirus Spreads, and the World Pays for China’s Dictatorship

 

Daily update from China.

Deadly day as coronavirus fatalities reach 213 with a record 42 in Hubei

up another 25-30 percent.

I would caution against those looking for worst case analyses, they are easy to find.
The New England Journal of Medicine has its first study out on it. 5.8 day mean incubation period and an RO if 2.2.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316?query=featured_home

 

I think if the bubble were bigger it might, but it’s still relatively calm and contained outside of China. Would have to expand greatly before we were truly at risk of a crash I think.

 

I believe I will be watching the Super Bowl at home. Go Niners!

 

Family has cancelled all their reservations and airline is refunding for tickets. Daughter and her 9 year old son are planning another trip, destination unknown at this time. They will wait on booking to see if the virus impacts travel to other places.

 

Damage to the travel sectors alone could drag down the economy. Airlines, hotels, cruise ships: all will be hit especially hard for the next 4-5 months. They will likely experience layoffs unless the government steps in with a lot of cash. If the virus spreads even a little across the U.S., domestic travel will be hit as hard as international travel. Damage to China's economy could be in the trillions of dollars, and it will affect other economies. China actually does buy some things from other countries, including the U.S. Agriculture will take a hit. Even certain petrochemicals are sold in bulk to China. A lot of U.S. businesses (like Apple) have production facilities in China, and if they can't get iPhones produced over there for 3-4 months, their bottom line will take a hit. No one is going to set up a factory in the U.S. (which takes 5+ years) to take advantage of a temporary situation in China that will be over and done with in five months.

I have said this before, but the U.S. economy is due for a recession (the economy has been expanding since the last recession in 2008), and is actually very close to recession. Midwest manufacturers are reporting that their output has been shrinking for seven consecutive months.

Manufacturing is now officially in recession, despite Trump's vow to boost industry

United States Manufacturing Production

Remember, in a recession, employment is the last thing to fall, after profits and productivity.

 

we all agree that a recession is overdue. I have been moving my stocks to bonds at around a .5%-1% percent monthly clip for a year now and will continue to do so.

but China is only 5 percent of the worlds gdp, even if their gdp dropped 10 percent it’s only a half point hit on the world number. Only about 1 percent of our gdp is trade with China. Travel is only 2-3 percent of the US GDP and the vast majority of that is domestic which isn’t impacted yet. And if people don’t buy an iPhone they will likely spend that money on something else because there isn't a reason to curtail spending overall yet.

Not saying it won’t have an impact, but it will take a meaningful spread to western countries before it does real damage - especially, if as experts currently predict, we are only a month or two from the outbreak peak. That is why to this point market drops have been orderly and not panicked.
If all of sudden several thousand cases turn up in the US though, all bets are off, depending on the mortality rate of the virus at that point and whether there’s a vaccine yet.

 

Now that you mention that, that has been thrown around as a cure for climate change. Fewer people = fewer resources needed. In fact, it's the #1 solution to climate change, but you won't hear liberals talking about that out in public. But, the UN and the WHO have studies that are looking into how much of an impact fewer people would have on the environment. Some suggest 1.8B, the population just prior to 1900. One solution is to stop procreating globally. But, it would take 100 years to reach 1.8B so that isn't going to work. Millennials are helping out by delaying or completely avoid having children but that too would take 200 years. Another is to enact a form of Logan's Run on the older population, say first everyone older than 80, then work backwards until said population reaches 1.8B. But would that mean annual culling to keep that number at 1.8B?

But I digress. This is all hoopla. So we have 10,000 infected with a bit more than 3% dead. I guess that makes this year's strain of virus a legendary pandemic considering it makes this virus look like a sneeze. How so? Since October 1st, more than 10,000 have died from the current normal strain of H1N1 in the US alone. It's more contagious and that's taking into consideration we have a vaccination program.

 

Hope you got your flu shot

 

No, it's absolutely true. There is obviously a maximum sustainable number of humans that can live on the planet. Only so many resources, so much oxygen, fresh water, etc before everything is depleted and destroyed. It really is just common sense, the type that one need not have a scientific mind to see plainly. Granted, there is no good way to know what that exact number is - as it's a continually moving target, that's where you have to look at the science, and there really is no perfect science on this. Just professional best guesses. So even if you had some good figures, technological advancements might move the needle. But it's fair to say we might be reaching a tipping point with the way some countries are living wastefully. So either people have to get more efficient, or eventually it will be forced upon us through famine or pandemic caused from environmental destruction.

 

Read the fascinating story about the mysterious Georgian Guidestones and Robert C Christian, an admitted pseudonym for the man who arranged for their erection in rural Elberta County, Georgia. Guide Number One declares the Earth's population should be limited to 500,000,000, requiring the elimination of 12 out of 13 people living at the date the article was written.
American Stonehenge: Monumental Instructions for the Post-Apocalypse

"But many who read what was written on the stones were unsettled. Guide number one was, of course, the real stopper: maintain humanity under 500,000,000 in perpetual balance with nature. There were already 4.5 billion people on the planet, meaning eight out of nine had to go (today it would be closer to 12 out of 13). This instruction was echoed and expanded by tenet number two: guide reproduction wisely—improving fitness and diversity. It didn't take a great deal of imagination to draw an analogy to the practices of, among others, the Nazis. Guide number three instructed readers to unite humanity with a living new language. This sent a shiver up the spine of local ministers who knew that the Book of Revelations warned of a common tongue and a one-world government as the accomplishments of the Antichrist. Guide number four—rule passion—faith—tradition—and all things with tempered reason—was similarly threatening to Christians committed to the primacy of faith over all. The last six guides were homiletic by comparison. protect people and nations with fair laws and just courts. let all nations rule internally resolving external disputes in a world court. avoid petty laws and useless officials. balance personal rights with social duties. prize truth—beauty—love—seeking harmony with the infinite. be not a cancer on the earth—leave room for nature—leave room for nature."