Coronavirus - International stories and thoughts

I spoke to my son, who lives in Tianjin, China, on Sun. for a 1st hand report. His city hasn't been quarantined yet, but most businesses, except for essential services, like grocery stores and gas stations, are closed until further notice. The school he teaches at is closed. The government is asking everyone to stay in their homes. Everyone is wearing masks, including him. And this is in a major city that hasn't had a single infection, as far as I know. My son stocked up on Spam and water, and is prepared to hunker down for weeks.

He finishes his contract in 2 months, and is coming back to the USA for good, after international teaching for 10 years. I told him maybe he should get while the gettings good, in case they close more airports completely. He doesn't seem worried.

 

Yeah I was mentioning that to someone today - if all of the doomsdays about this virus - transmittal before symptoms, easily transmitted, high death rate etc had been true, you would think that others in the US would have been infected, that some of the infected would have died etc. Still could happen, but as each day passes it seems less likely.

as far as deaths in Wuhan, just do some basic math and the numbers are staggering.
Let’s assume there are 9 million people left in the city, which I quoted yesterday. Let’s say even 10 percent of the population is infected, that’s 900,000 people. Then assume even a three percent mortality rate, and that’s 27k deaths. And that’s not even accounting for increased mortality as conditions and medical care deteriorate.

so seeing a bunch of dead people in Wuhan doesn’t mean much just yet, other than China is fudging the numbers, which we all expect is true.

 

this is today’s official report from the SCMP. It confirms those numbers, but they are also claiming people aren’t infectious during the incubation period. While China can’t be fully trusted, I actually believe them here, or the disease would be all over the world in large numbers already, and the infected US people would have infected a bunch of others as I said above. If true, that greatly reduces the threat.

Coronavirus death toll climbs to 106, China admits shortage of medical supplies

 

Can’t imagine closing down a country like China is doing. Chinese New Year was extended 3 days. We do a lot of business with China. Right now there are no delays. Bet that changes.

My youngest is taking Chinese in school. I wonder when he learns virus vocabulary?

 

How did five million people leave without causing complete chaos?

 

Just glad Mrs51 doesn't watch the news. She's a hypochondriac and would certainly have symptoms by now.

 

Today’s China update. They are saying most deaths are still the old and compromised.

Coronavirus case total surpasses that of Sars as death toll hits 131

 

Your neighbor gets virus: "mae-oh wen-tee"

Your family gets virus: "showw wen-tee"

You get virus: "doww wen-tee"

 

The serious news seems to be that both Germany and Japan have had secondary cases of the virus appear. People who did not travel to China are coming down with the virus. And I don't think they have as of yet identified who they came in contact with that brought it back from China.

I would wait a few weeks before declaring this virus irrelevant. There could be hundreds of thousands infected in Wuhan alone (and tens of thousands in the rest of China), but not showing symptoms yet. I would be concerned about everyone in the U.S. that traveled aboard the same airplane as the five who brought it back with them, as well as the people that they will be interacting with in the next two weeks.

 

I read the Forbidden City and a popular section of the Great Wall are now closed. My family has 4 or 5 weeks to make a decision but if the sites remain closed they will cancel their trip. Visas are expensive but are good for years to come so the trip can be made in the future when things settle down there.

 

Germans now have four cases, but can trace the spread of the virus back to a Chinese employee of a German car parts firm. The employee, who was based in Shanghai, visited Germany after her parents visited from Wuhan, and did not get sick until the flight back to China.

Four co-workers in Germany contract coronavirus after Chinese colleague visits

It will be interesting to see how well Germany can contain the virus. It may foreshadow what happens here.

 

I am hearing that essentially all tourism in China has been stopped. And some airlines are offering either full refunds or a chance to re-schedule with no change fee.

My trip to China got cancelled. I will probably go later in the year.

 

British Airways have stopped all flights to China. Just a matter of time before Mr. Trump puts a halt to flights to China.

 

It appears Chinese authorities are barricading some people into their apts in some towns so they can't leave.

 

Always good knowing they have the situation under control..........

 

In no particular order....
Mom(old bad COPD mad at the world), sister-in-law(giant narcissist) , cousin(or aunt, old post stoke not happy)

 

Don't we all have a few of those...