Knowing how Golden uses analytics to evaluate his team (especially effective fg%, offensive reb rate, turnover rate, and foul rate), I find it fascinating to figure out what he is trying to do with the roster. Last year, he decided that the easiest ways to be better offensively without great shooting or elite talent is to improve your offensive rebounding, which gives you more shots, and have guards with a high usage rate, which means increased tempo and more shots because of the ability to get shots in transition and early in the clock. We definitely improved in those areas: offensive rebounding was 8th nationally (up from 320th) and tempo was 19th nationally (up from 64th), making us the 11th most efficient offensively (up from 147th), despite being 113th in effective field goal% (still better than 233rd the previous year). So, how is he adjusting this year? We've seen three very good defensive additions, who each still bring something to the table offensively. Chinyelu and Alexis can rebound at both ends, protect the rim defensively, and finish at the rim offensively. Martin, like Aberdeen, can be an elite three-position defender. He also would have been our best rebounding guard (tied with Richard offensively, but the best defensively and overall), a usage rate second among guards (after Clayton), a turnover rate second only to Pullin, the best steal rate, and an effective fg% second to Clayton (despite being the worst of Martin's career, by far--50.8 to 53.7, 58, and 57.9 in previous years). Analytically speaking, he would have been our best two-way player a year ago, even in a year when he struggled comparatively speaking. Here's my completely off the cuff interpretation of all that: Golden is doubling down on defense/rebounding because he believes good offensive rebounding and high usage rates will in and of themselves make us a good offensive team because of higher shot volume, while improved defensive rebounding, rim protection, and on ball defense/turnover creation will--in addition to actually being able stop someone once in a while, haha--create more possessions, more transition opportunities, and more shots. Yes, I am a little nervous about the point guard position, given what we are asking Clayton and Martin to do. And, yes, we could really use a good spot up shooter or safe ballandler at the one, or a good defender at the three. But the current makeup of this roster tells me a lot of what we can expect next year: even more tempo, because we will have the defense to get stops and get out in transition. Almost makes me think of a defensively oriented Bama team.
I love analytics, but I think it’s really simple this year. Offense was good, so fix defensive rebounding, perimeter and interior defense. He’s already attacked all three with his pickups.
And by the way, this is why I am so high on Golden. He correctly identifies weaknesses, and fixes them with players who fit what we’re trying to do. We may miss on a few transfers (Fudge et al), but his process is sound and really well thought out, over time it will work. The last big step will be the true difference maker coming here. The guy that can take over a game on both ends when we need it and get us through a game like Colorado.
But it’s not even close to the same team given all the losses, especially Pullin’s efficiency, Samuel’s production, and Handlogten’s offensive rebounding. But I am bullish on what the sophomore bigs bring to the table. Condon was our most effective rebounder in conference play, and he and Haugh were our best shot blockers. Condon also had our best defensive rating on the year and Haugh had the team’s best 2-pt % in the conference season. Those two could be really good next year, if they can cut down on the fouls.
We will see. I do think we take a small step back on offense, but if we take a large step forward on defense, it more than offsets. That said, if Condon and Haugh take a a step forward offensively, and Martin is as advertised, hopefully it won’t be a big drop off.
So hard to say until we know exactly what the roster looks like, right? If the season were to start today, I think you would pair Condon with Alexis, and Chinyelu and Haugh coming off the bench (largely to avoid Chinyelu/Alexis pairings as much as possible, since their offensive games are far more limited than Condo/Haugh). Richard will obviously be the starting three, and I would guess that Clayton and Martin start together in the backcourt, but basically rotating those two and Aberdeen at the guard spots. Again, lots more to come in the portal, though.
That's kinda my read, though one of the things I probably didn't say clearly enough above is that with our tempo, I think Golden is betting that better defense will create even more offensive opportunities.
A true point guard. A wing would absolutely be nice for the second remaining scholly slot, but in terms of NEED, as in downside if we DONT get somebody, point guard is far and away a bigger area of concern. The wing isn't even a concern really, its just the most obvious place to look for an upgrade on already good talent. But as I said in the other thread, Ive seen what would be IMO elite/great teams relegated to average due to the lack of someone to initiate and coordinate the offense in a true PG fashion and tie it all together, so the pieces dont gel and become much less effective in the same vein as "the whole is greater than the sum of its parts" and with no PG the team is missing the piece to make it "whole", so it becomes the sum of its parts. We don't need a highly rated player or even a particularly offensively skilled one at that. But we do need one that can pass really well and is really smart to run the offense. So we should be able to pick out a player with mostly mid-major offers to A) avoid paying NIL money and B) avoid a major recruiting battle with another power program, and a possible last minute scramble if we lose. 2 roster spots remaining. IMO lock up a decent PG with the next spot, then back the NIL brinks truck up and go all in on the highest rated player you can find for the last spot.
I hope the improvement in our defense is not at the expense of tempo, which returned exciting basketball to Florida, after too many years of the Mike White era. How many scholarships do we have left to fill assuming both Clayton and Richard return?
That was kinda the premise above: offensive rebounding + tempo = better offense, but better defense/defensive rebounding = more possessions. And even the previous year, when we had a good defense, we still played at a decent pace (top 70–compared to mid 100s under White). I don’t think good defense is the negative variable, but guards who can’t create. That’s why we targeted usage rate in the portal. We went from guys like Jones and Lofton to Clayton and Pullin. Martin fits that mold, too. Yet to see on Aberdeen.
Good thread. I see several posters mentioning a pg. If Clayton comes back which is likely who is going to the bench for our PG? Martin and Clayton will both play let’s say at least 30 min a game. And neither of them is here to play the 3 so while it would be nice to have more of a pure pg, I’m not sure that even if we had one they would get a ton of minutes. I think TG is good with who we have there. If someone leaves then that could change of course. As of today Richard will start at the 3 and then I would assume Condon and Alexis fill out the starting rotation with Haugh being like a starter in terms of minutes. I see Aberdeen as our main sub in the backcourt. I do know we would love to add another 3 with some more size. I like what TG has built in terms of a roster, but I do think he is taking some risk. The Gators didn’t just play fast because that’s what Golden wants, the improvement in pace also came because Pullin was so good at pushing pace. He was elite at it and also played under control while playing fast which is a tremendous skill. I think that is what we will miss the most. Obviously he was also really good at attacking the middle, while keeping his strength in the dribble and making plays for others. It will be very interesting to see if Martin can add some of that. what will be fun to watch is when Condon, Haugh and Martin are all on the floor we have 3 what I call head first guys on loose balls. Head first guys are guys that are all in on loose ball situations. instead of just reaching with their arms they go head first after the ball. The ability to make a 50/50 ball a 80/20 ball earns you extra possessions. It’s how guys like Udonis Harlem made his living in the NBA.
I don't see another PG coming unless Clayton leaves. I think we need another SF that profiles similarly to Richard.
I'd like to see a long wing/3 as well but I think what we'll miss most in addition to what Pullin brought is Samuel's offensive game, especially late in the season. A 4 who can face the basket from the foul line and beat his guy off the dribble and go to either hand. I think Condo or Haugh can develop that skillset, we'll see. One thing Alexis does bring is a decent 3-point shot, at least from the top of the arc, so that will bring a little extra dimension and spacing. All in all some returning players will have to adjust for those holes left by the departures of Pullin and Samuel. They have 6 months to work on those skills so should be enough time. We'll see. Make those adjustments, add a long wing, and I think we could be even better than we were this year...we already have 7-8 rotational players in this group plus hopefully we can add 1 or 2 more
Without getting a really good PG in the portal we are going to take a step back. I remember how negatively everyone viewed Clayton before Pullin was able to play because he was trying to handle the ball in the Virginia game. I think Pullin was our MVP this season. If you want to look at our best teams, we have always had great PG play. Unless Aberdeen or Kublickas make a huge leap in their skills for next year. Then never mind.
These are hard to find, but I would like a long, bouncy 3-4 to kind of split the difference. Golden used a kid like that at SF very effectively (name escapes me). And Fudge was brought in for that role, too. If we can find a younger, athletic combo forward who can play the 4 in smaller lineups, spell Richard at the 3, and be in position to replace Richard a year from now, that would be ideal. Again, though, kids like that are about as difficult to find as three and D wings.
I’ve seen a few people mention that Alexis may bring better 3pt shooting to us, but I’m not sure what that is based on. In his frosh season he only shot 33 of them and yes made 36% but on limited attempts. Last year he increased that attempt number to a respectable 52 and shot 26.9% from 3. He is also an awful free throw shooter. I don’t think we are thinking of him as someone who can currently stretch the floor.
